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How the retail lottery works
In a mainboard IPO, the rule for retail investors is to give one minimum lot to as many applicants as possible.
- If shares are enough for every valid applicant to get one lot, everyone gets one, and any shares left are shared out in proportion to the bids.
- If shares are not enough, the registrar runs a computerised lottery among valid applications. Each winner gets one lot; everyone else gets none.
So in a popular issue, your chance is roughly the number of lots available divided by the number of valid applications. Read how IPO shares are allotted for each category’s rules.
Why more lots do not help
Because each winner gets one lot, a bid for 13 lots and a bid for 1 lot are one ticket each. The extra money is blocked and then released.
This is the most common misunderstanding about IPO allotment. It is also why the retail subscription figure, which counts shares, overstates the competition. Many applicants bid for the maximum, so shares bid rise faster than the number of people bidding.
What can legitimately increase your chances
- Make sure your bid counts. A rejected bid has no chance. Use your own PAN, demat and bank account, and approve the UPI mandate early.
- Bid at cut-off. A bid below the final price gets nothing. Read what cut-off price means.
- Separate applications by family members. Each adult with their own PAN, demat and bank account is a separate ticket. Each must pay from their own account.
- A shareholder quota, where offered. Some IPOs reserve shares for shareholders of a listed parent company on a record date. If you qualify, you can bid there as well as in retail, in a separate, often less crowded draw.
- An employee quota, where offered and you are eligible.
What does not increase your chances
| Belief | What actually happens |
|---|---|
| Bid for more lots | Still one lottery ticket in retail |
| Apply on the first day | Timing within the window does not matter |
| Use a big broker or a premium account | The registrar runs the draw, not the broker |
| Apply twice with the same PAN | The extra application is rejected |
| Pay someone for a “confirmed” allotment | No one can promise allotment; this is a common scam |
A worked example
Ravita Engineering Services, an SME IPO, closed on 16 October 2026 at ₹112 a share, with a lot of 1,200. SME individuals must bid for at least two lots. The figures below are from NSE’s bid details and the company’s RHP corrigendum; the odds are our calculation.
| Step | Figure |
|---|---|
| Shares for individual investors | 34,46,400 |
| Minimum application (2 lots) | 2,400 shares |
| Minimum applications available | 1,436 |
| Individual applications received | 5,022 |
| Approximate chance | 1,436 ÷ 5,022 = about 29%, or 1 in 3.5 |
Shares bid in the individual category were 1,20,52,800, about 3.5 times the 34,46,400 on offer. Here the number of applications gives almost the same ratio. In a mainboard IPO, where many retail bidders ask for several lots, the subscription figure would make the odds look much worse than counting applications does.
Estimating the odds in a mainboard IPO
In a mainboard IPO, the exchanges publish shares bid, not the number of retail applicants, while bidding is on. So you can only estimate the odds.
Take BLS Polymers, which closed on 29 October 2026 with retail subscribed 128.36 times. At its cap of ₹150, about 59,500 lots were available to retail (our calculation, at 35% of 1.70 crore new shares). If the average retail applicant bid for three lots, about 25 lakh people applied, and the chance was roughly 1 in 43. If the average was five lots, fewer people applied and the chance was nearer 1 in 26.
The real figure appears in the basis of allotment. These are our estimates on assumed averages.
The shareholder quota in practice
Some IPOs by subsidiaries of listed companies reserve shares for the parent’s shareholders. To qualify, you usually need to hold at least one share of the parent on the date the RHP is filed. The RHP states the exact date and rules.
If you qualify, you can bid in the shareholder quota as well as in retail, and each is a separate draw. Shareholder quotas are often less crowded than retail, because fewer people qualify. Jio Platforms’ shareholder quota, for example, was subscribed 7.60 times against 2.72 times for retail, according to NSE, so in that issue it was the more heavily subscribed draw. It differs from issue to issue.
Small NII and big NII
Since 2022, the NII category works like a lottery too. Small NII (bids above ₹2 lakh up to ₹10 lakh) and big NII (above ₹10 lakh) winners each get the minimum application size for their pool, chosen by lottery. Shares left after that are allotted in proportion.
So a small NII bid is also one ticket, for a larger minimum. Whether it gives better odds than retail depends on how heavily each category is subscribed. Compare the category figures in IPO subscription status explained.
Undersubscribed and lightly subscribed issues
If a category is subscribed less than once, every valid applicant gets all the shares they bid for. Between once and a few times, most applicants still get at least one lot.
High demand cuts your chances; low demand raises them. Neither tells you anything about the company itself.
If you are not allotted
Not getting shares in a popular IPO is the normal outcome, not a sign of a problem with your bid. Your money was only blocked, and it is released by 4 pm on T+2.
Each IPO’s lottery is separate. Missing out in one issue does not raise or lower your chances in the next one.
When you will know
The basis of allotment is finalised on T+1, the working day after the issue closes. You can check your status that evening on the registrar’s site or on BSE or NSE. Read how to check IPO allotment status, and how to read the basis of allotment to see the actual odds in each category.
Common mistakes to avoid
- Bidding the maximum to improve odds. It blocks more money for the same single ticket.
- Applying from a family member’s PAN with your own bank account. The bid is rejected for a name mismatch.
- Applying twice with the same PAN. Only one counts; the other is rejected.
- Missing the mandate deadline. A mandate approved after 5 pm on the closing day does not count.
- Paying for a “sure allotment”. No one can guarantee it; read about IPO scams and fake allotment offers before you trust such offers.
What to do next
Read what happens to your money if you are not allotted. Then see the subscription so far for IPOs open this week.
Sources: SEBI (Issue of Capital and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, 2018, Schedule XIV: allotment to retail individual investors and non-institutional investors; SEBI ICDR (Amendment) Regulations, 2022: lottery for the minimum application size in the NII category, split one-third and two-thirds; NSE bid details for Ravita Engineering Services (October 2026) and its RHP corrigendum dated 12 Oct 2026, for the worked example.
Frequently asked questions
How can I increase my chances of IPO allotment?
Make sure your bid is valid, at cut-off, and approved well before the deadline. Beyond that, the legitimate routes are separate applications by family members with their own PAN and accounts, and a shareholder or employee quota where you qualify.
Does applying for more lots increase allotment chances?
No. In an oversubscribed mainboard IPO, retail winners usually get one lot each, picked by lottery. Ten lots and one lot give the same chance.
Does applying on the first day help?
No. Allotment does not depend on when you applied during the bidding window. Applying early only gives you time to fix a mandate that fails.
How are IPO shares allotted to retail investors?
If there are enough shares, every valid retail applicant gets at least one lot. If not, the registrar runs a computerised lottery among valid applicants, and each winner gets one lot.
Is there a better chance in the small NII category?
Sometimes, sometimes not. Small NII winners are also picked by lottery, for the minimum NII application. It depends on how heavily that category is subscribed against the shares in it.
Can I find out the exact odds before allotment?
Not exactly, because the number of applications is final only after bidding closes. The basis of allotment, published after allotment, shows the actual ratio for each category.